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What moved, and why it matters to you.

Weekly brief for exporters · Cocoa beans · Cameroon into Amsterdam · Week 36, 2026

European buyers are short of beans and paying the firmest Cameroon premium of the season. This week, exporters hold the stronger hand.

  • At origin, arrivals are slow. After a dry August, Cameroon’s port arrivals are 14% behind last season, so fewer beans are ready to ship. [2]
  • In Europe, buyers are short. The Q2 grind rose 3.1% on the year while Amsterdam stocks fell 12.6% in a month, so grinders need beans before the next crop. [3] [7]
  • In the market, documented lots win. The Cameroon differential is £180/t over London, the firmest this season, and lots with complete EUDR files are taking most of it. [6] [8]
  • For you, that means pricing power. Delivered prices moved this week, with documented lots commanding the strongest premium until the late-September pod counts.
Origin supply
Tight
−14% port arrivals against last season [2]
European demand
Strong
+3.1% grind on the year, −12.6% Amsterdam stocks in a month [3] [7]
EUDR premium
Widening
+$40/MT of this week’s move came from documented lots [8]
Price swings

Cameroon cocoa beans · Weekly, delivered Amsterdam · USD/MT

$7,440 /MT

Driver attribution · Week 36

Method. Rolling 52-week regression of weekly delivered-price returns on factor returns. Each bar is the factor’s beta times its move this week. R² 0.61; the residual is what the model does not explain.

Regime scorecard

Method. Each driver is a percentile against ten years of weekly history, oriented so that higher is more supportive of price.

Seasonality · Monthly returns, 2016 to 2025

Price risk · Per tonne of delivered beans

One-week value at risk, per tonne

ScenarioShockPriceChange per MT

Method. Volatility is 20-week realised, annualised and scaled to one week; scenarios are multiples of it, per tonne of delivered beans.

So what · For exporters

Exporters hold pricing power until the late-September pod counts.

  • The rally remains vulnerable to reversal. London cocoa and the Cameroon differential explain of this week’s gain. The risk model estimates weekly price volatility at , based on the past 20 weeks. A fall of that size would erase of this week’s gain for exporters who have yet to fix their selling price.
  • Documented lots hold the premium. Stocks down 12.6% and a $40/MT EUDR premium keep the £180/t differential firm; undocumented beans won’t share in it.
  • Pod counts decide what’s next. A low count (field surveys pointing to a smaller main crop) is the top upside at ; the downside is in a bad week, and a close below $7,000/MT erases this week’s gain.
  • Ports will tighten. Congestion at Douala and Kribi typically rises as main-crop arrivals build.

Watch next week

  • MondayCameroon port arrivals [2]
  • DailyICE certified stocks, Amsterdam [3]
  • Late SepMain-crop pod counts [1]
  • Mid OctEuropean Q3 grind [7]

Sources

  1. Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5) and ECMWF forecasts, with ACMAD for West and Central Africa, and main-crop pod count surveys
  2. Cameroon’s National Cocoa and Coffee Board (ONCC) port arrivals and export registrations
  3. ICE Futures Europe certified cocoa stocks in Amsterdam and Antwerp
  4. Bank of England sterling, European Central Bank euro, and BEAC CFA franc reference rates
  5. Drewry World Container Index, West Africa to North Europe, and Douala and Kribi port notices
  6. ICE London cocoa futures and origin differential assessments from European traders
  7. European Cocoa Association quarterly grind, ICCO Quarterly Bulletin, Eurostat Comext, and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) trade data
  8. EU Deforestation Regulation guidance and due-diligence information system

Sample brief. Not market data, a forecast, or trading advice.

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